Could we be one of the OLDEST civilizations in the galaxy?

On Jan 24, 2007, at 17:15 UTC, Jake wrote:

> So maybe they are still coming and just haven't got close enough to be
> detected yet..

No, this would be extremely unlikely. Let's break it down:

1. The odds of the first two civilizations arising within a few hundred
million years of each other are extremely small.

2. The first civilization to arise will colonize the entire galaxy
within a few hundred million years.

Do you disagree with or not understand either of these points?

If not, then, either we are the first civilization to arise, or we are
not. If we are first, then there is essentially nobody else out there;
nobody who's going to develop spaceships and radio telescopes for
hundreds of millions of years, by point (1) above. If we are not the
first, then somebody else was, and they beat us by at least hundreds of
millions of years, by point (1); and by point (2), they have settled
the entire galaxy by now.

So they can't be on their way; they're either already "here" (as close
as they choose to come), or they are not there at all. Anything else
is ridiculously unlikely, by the laws of probability.

> Maybe their communications are encrypted to prevent
> conflict with other beings.. Or maybe they have discovered
> technologies that we just simply haven't even thought of yet..

Well, sure. We assume all those things are true. In short, if they're
out there, they are intentionally concealing themselves from us, and
obviously have the technology to do so successfully. (This is the
"nature preserve" hypothesis again.)

Cheers,
- Joe

Joe Strout -- joe@...