Could we be one of the OLDEST civilizations in the galaxy?

From: spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of ANTIcarrot

> The odds of one species remaining unchanged for 100 million years:
> vanishingly small
>
> The odds of a technologically advanced species capable of engineering
> itself remaining unchanged for 1000 years: even smaller
>
> Once you have TWO or more closely related species who have near
> identical technology because they have a common ancestor, all the
> rules change.

This still doesn't help explain the Fermi Paradox. Yes, I'd consider it
extremely likely that a single technological race would speciate,
especially given the possibilities of genetic and cybernetic
engineering. To me, all that does is vastly multiply the odds that one
or more of the subspecies would quickly fill up the galaxy.

In fact, I think the possibility you bring up is one of those being
ignored by those who argue for low-growth or zero-growth scenarios for
advanced civilizations. If a single technical species splits up into a
dozen or more subspecies, what are the odds that all of them would head
down the same low-growth pathway? Its more straightforward to assume
that variation will result in a variety of outcomes.

Regards,

Mike Combs